To determine which organism's population would decline first if shrimp were over-harvested, I need to see the specific food chain.
For example, if the chain is:
Phytoplankton → Zooplankton → Shrimp → Red Drum
Then overfishing shrimp would directly impact the Red Drum population, because they rely on shrimp as a food source.
Please provide the food chain, and I can help you identify which population would be affected first.